Total
Number of Vehicles
Energy Sales
Wenbin Zhou and Shixiang Zhu
Carnegie Mellon University
Email: wenbinz2@andrew.cmu.edu; shixiangzhu@cmu.edu
For EV forecast, we adopt a top-down forecast approach using the BMV EV registration data, therefore there is only one set of hyperparameters for all six forecasts. PV data was used to impute granular-level timestamps information of EV registration. Additional information include Indiana Vehicle Fuel Dashboard (Marion County), load, outage, demographic factors (e.g., education, income) are used to assist model fitting. Same assumptions as the IRP 2022 report was used for computing the load sales forecast. The details of our methodology can be found in the preprint [1].
The initial values of the hyperparameters are fitted in a data-driven manner. We include some additional supporting arguments to help with model adjustment:
Confidence level: Given that the EV data was reconciled with other data sources to improve granularity, which in the downside, might induce noise and bias, we recommend using relatively high confidence level (e.g. 70%).
Tipping point: Multiple concrete analysis sources, such as Bloomberg [2][3][6], have pointed out that in more than 31 countries, EV growth has reached the "tipping point" (for mass adoption) of EV adoption mark, a.k.a. the "5% milestone". Gloablly, experts suggest that the EV tipping point has already been crossed by 2021 [3][6]. For the US, many experts claim that it has already been crossed by the end of 2021 [3][7], while some claim that the tipping point has not yet arrived, and is expected to arrive within the next 10 years [4]. For Indianapolis, a previous study conducted by Camus Energy in partnership with AES Indiana suggested that the tipping point for Indianapolis region is expected to arrive by early 2029 [5]. We set the tipping point to be at the same time as the time suggested by Camus Energy.
Penetration rate: Multiple studies have suggested that EV penetration rate saturates at a theoretical level of 50%. Survey conducted in [8] suggest that 54% of skeptics (ICE vehicle drivers) will consider buying EV in the next 3-5 years. A world-wide survey [4] suggested that around 57% people believe that they will own an EV in the next ten years. Another survery [9] suggest that 38% of Americans will seriously consider buying an EV, and another 40% will considering buying an EV.